ENLIGHTEN3D

By Joshua Koopferstock

Rumors, rumors; that’s what we get out of UK-based British Sky Broadcasting (aka Sky), a satellite TV provider.  In a story published a couple weeks back in the Times, Sky director of strategic product development Gerry O’Sullivan “said that a service ‘could be launched any time in the next two years’, depending on the results of trials and on ensuring there was enough content available.”

That is far from a commitment, but it is in line with what we have been hearing from others in the industry.  Let’s take a look at some of the different players involved in 3D cinema and TV, and where each of them stands.

TV display hardware manufacturers (like LG, Samsung, Panasonic): These companies are gearing up for production, had working products to show at CES, and already have some “3D-enabled” TV’s are already on the market.  Expect a bigger push later in 2009 and in 2010.

Film Producers (20th Century Fox, Disney): They are more than ready for 3D cinema and home TV to take off.  They have bet big on 3D with their marketing and production budgets, and want more outlets for the public to be able to view their films.  In the short term, they have the most to gain from having more 3D cinemas and 3D enabled TV’s (and Blu-Rays, DVDs), and are pushing 3D the hardest of anyone.  In fact, they have started to spread around these potential gains to get the ball rolling faster.

TV Content Distributors (cable TV & satellite TV providers like Sky): 3D is something they are considering, but is not yet the most pressing issue for them.  There is still work to be done on creating standards (this involves the hardware manufacturers too), and consortiums like 3D@Home have been created to deal with this.  Things are moving, but expect this to happen towards the later part of “within the next two years”, if it makes it in that time frame.  I will be posting updates on important developments on standardization coming out of 3D@Home and other standardization bodies.

TV Content Producers (Fox Sports, NBC sports): Here’s a quote I posted the other week:

“I hope the TV industry doesn’t get conned again the way we did with HD,” [Fox Sports TV Group chairman-CEO David] Hill said. “And we got conned. It cost us a fortune to go to HD, but do we get a penny more from the advertisers? Do we get an extra rating point? No. Everybody benefited but the broadcasters.”

My impression here is that there remains quite a bit of wheeling and dealing to be done, which takes time.  High-profile advocates of the technology like Mark Cuban are already pushing for 3D in sports, but even Mark can’t make this happen overnight by himself.

Cinemas: Movie theaters in North America want to go 3D, but need the investment money to upgrade their systems.  In our wonderful economic situation, cash is not the easiest thing to come by.  Cinedigm, a software supplier for digital theaters, had to revise their estimate downward from 1,500 3D screens in 2009 to under 200 (Boston Globe).  Still, the film producers have a lot to lose if there are not enough 3D cinemas to show their movies, so they will have to absorb some of the costs.  Expect more 3D-outfitted theaters in 2009.

These are my overall impressions on what is going on in the industry from what I’ve read, observed at CES, and seen in the theaters.  The web of the 3D TV and cinema industry is large, so there are certainly other important groups that have been left out; feel free to add your analysis in the comments.